2026 Szerb választás · Daily Brief · 01 November 2026
Material rise in Kreni-Promeni leads the daily campaign picture
Generated 2026-11-02 06:16 UTC · 7 posts · 2 accounts · tiktok
Baseline: 2026-10-24 to 2026-10-31 UTC. Narrative generator: deterministic-evidence-v1. Not yet human verified.
Executive summary
The Observatory captured 7 posts on 2026-11-01, 14% below the preceding 7-day daily average. The most frequent coded topics were other (4), personal/light content (1), historical memory (1).
The clearest material day-on-day signals were: Kreni-Promeni (actor) rose 163%: 6 posts versus a 2.3 daily baseline. SNS (party) fell 100%: 0 posts versus a 4.6 daily baseline. Aleksandar Vučić – Ujedinjena Srbija (electoral list) fell 100%: 0 posts versus a 4.3 daily baseline.
The highest raw engagement among observed posts came from ETF Blokada (11617), Kreni-Promeni (2217), Kreni-Promeni (1907). Raw engagement is not compared directly across platforms.
What to watch
- Watch whether the upward movement in Kreni-Promeni persists for a second day.
- Watch whether the downward movement in SNS persists for a second day.
- Watch whether the downward movement in Aleksandar Vučić – Ujedinjena Srbija persists for a second day.
Campaign dynamics
- Observed posting volume was 14% below the preceding 7-day daily average.
- The busiest six-hour period was 12:00–18:00 local time with 5 observed posts.
- The most active monitored actors were Kreni-Promeni (6), ETF Blokada (1).
| Actor | Posts | 7-day avg | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kreni-Promeni | 6 | 2.3 | +162% |
| ETF Blokada | 1 | 0.9 | +17% |
Network and narrative propagation
- The reporting-day network contains 0 monitored accounts, 0 observed mention/hashtag/link objects and 0 weighted relationships.
- No mention, hashtag or eligible external URL connected two monitored accounts during the reporting day.
- The broadest active narrative episodes were historical memory (2 accounts), personal/light content (3 accounts), mobilisation (2 accounts).
| Narrative | Accounts | Posts | New adoptions |
|---|---|---|---|
| historical memory Earliest observed: Aleksandar Vučić | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| personal/light content Earliest observed: ETF Blokada | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| mobilisation Earliest observed: Kreni-Promeni | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Observed co-occurrence and chronological succession are not proof of coordination, origin, transmission or causation.
Strongest observed network relationships
| Source actor | Observed object | Relationship | Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| No qualifying reporting-day network relationships. | |||
Material changes
| Dimension | Signal | Today | 7-day daily avg | Change | z-like | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| actor | Kreni-Promeni ↑ up | 6 | 2.3 | +163% | +1.62 | #2335#2336#2337#2338 |
| party | SNS ↓ down | 0 | 4.6 | -100% | -1.73 | #2329#2330#2331#2332 |
| electoral list | Aleksandar Vučić – Ujedinjena Srbija ↓ down | 0 | 4.3 | -100% | -1.59 | #2329#2330#2331#2332 |
| actor | Aleksandar Vučić ↓ down | 0 | 4.3 | -100% | -1.59 | #2329#2330#2331#2332 |
Evidence from the reporting day
| Time | Actor | Platform | Observed post | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:34 | Kreni-Promeni | tiktok | Sećanje na stradale | Original ↗ |
| 13:29 | Kreni-Promeni | tiktok | Sara Firić (2018) Valentina Firić (2014) Đorđe Firić (1971) Milica Adamović (2008) Nemanja Komar (2007) Anđela Ruman (2004) Miloš Milosavljević (2003) Stefan Hrka (1997) Sanja Ćirić Arbutina (1989) Vasko Sazdovski (1979) Goranka Raca (1966) Vukašin Raković (1955) Mileva Karanović (1948) Đuro Švonja (1947) Anja Radonjić (2000) Vukašin Crnčević (2006) 2 godine od pada nadstrešnice. Slava im!🕊️ | Original ↗ |
| 11:55 | Kreni-Promeni | tiktok | Pre tačno dve godine, nadstrešnica je odnela živote nevinih ljudi. Dve godine tuge, bola i pitanja na koja još uvek čekamo odgovore. Danas hodamo u znak sećanja na stradale. Da njihova imena ne zaboravimo, da istina ne bude zaboravljena i da odgovornost ne izostane. Sećamo se. Pamtimo. Ne odustajemo. Nikada više! | Original ↗ |
| 11:53 | Kreni-Promeni | tiktok | Dve godine kasnije, na istom mestu. 🕊️ Novi Sad pamti, Srbija pamti! 1.11.2026. | Original ↗ |
| 11:36 | ETF Blokada | tiktok | 1.11. Nikada nećemo zaboraviti. | Original ↗ |
| 10:16 | Kreni-Promeni | tiktok | Srbija pamti!🕊️ | Original ↗ |
| 09:00 | Kreni-Promeni | tiktok | Predstavnici Pokreta Kreni-Promeni zapalili sveće i položili cveće ispred Železničke stanice na mestu tragedije u Novom Sadu. Srbija pamti 🇷🇸 | Original ↗ |