2026 Szerb választás · Daily Brief · 12 October 2026
Material decline in tiktok leads the daily campaign picture
Generated 2026-10-16 06:15 UTC · 1 posts · 1 accounts · tiktok
Baseline: 2026-10-04 to 2026-10-11 UTC. Narrative generator: deterministic-evidence-v1. Not yet human verified.
Executive summary
The Observatory captured 1 posts on 2026-10-12, 92% below the preceding 7-day daily average. The most frequent coded topics were other (1).
The clearest material day-on-day signals were: tiktok (platform) fell 92%: 1 posts versus a 12.6 daily baseline. neutral/informational (tone) fell 90%: 1 posts versus a 10.4 daily baseline. other (communication type) fell 91%: 1 posts versus a 11.3 daily baseline.
The highest raw engagement among observed posts came from Kreni-Promeni (177). Raw engagement is not compared directly across platforms.
What to watch
- Watch whether the downward movement in tiktok persists for a second day.
- Watch whether the downward movement in neutral/informational persists for a second day.
- Watch whether the downward movement in other persists for a second day.
Campaign dynamics
- Observed posting volume was 92% below the preceding 7-day daily average.
- The busiest six-hour period was 12:00–18:00 local time with 1 observed posts.
- The most active monitored actors were Kreni-Promeni (1).
| Actor | Posts | 7-day avg | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kreni-Promeni | 1 | 2.1 | -53% |
Network and narrative propagation
- The reporting-day network contains 0 monitored accounts, 0 observed mention/hashtag/link objects and 0 weighted relationships.
- No mention, hashtag or eligible external URL connected two monitored accounts during the reporting day.
- No coded narrative reached the two-account adoption threshold in the analysis window.
| Narrative | Accounts | Posts | New adoptions |
|---|---|---|---|
| No narrative reached the two-account adoption threshold. | |||
Observed co-occurrence and chronological succession are not proof of coordination, origin, transmission or causation.
Strongest observed network relationships
| Source actor | Observed object | Relationship | Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| No qualifying reporting-day network relationships. | |||
Material changes
| Dimension | Signal | Today | 7-day daily avg | Change | z-like | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| platform | tiktok ↓ down | 1 | 12.6 | -92% | -2.61 | #2160 |
| tone | neutral/informational ↓ down | 1 | 10.4 | -90% | -2.62 | #2160 |
| communication type | other ↓ down | 1 | 11.3 | -91% | -2.45 | #2160 |
| analytical flag | scope:political ↓ down | 0 | 4.3 | -100% | -3.11 | #2144#2140#2145#2146 |
| party | SNS ↓ down | 0 | 9.1 | -100% | -1.96 | #2138#2139#2140#2141 |
| electoral list | Aleksandar Vučić – Ujedinjena Srbija ↓ down | 0 | 8.3 | -100% | -1.81 | #2138#2139#2140#2141 |
| actor | Aleksandar Vučić ↓ down | 0 | 8.3 | -100% | -1.81 | #2138#2139#2140#2141 |
| topic | other ↓ down | 1 | 6.3 | -84% | -1.63 | #2160 |
Evidence from the reporting day
| Time | Actor | Platform | Observed post | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:50 | Kreni-Promeni | tiktok | Osvanuli plakati „Ujedinjene siledžije" sa likom Šapića i Vučića u Beogradu | Original ↗ |