2026 Szerb választás · Daily Brief · 16 September 2026
Material rise in Đorđe Vukadinović leads the daily campaign picture
Generated 2026-09-17 07:22 UTC · 371 posts · 38 accounts · tiktok, x
Baseline: 2026-09-08 to 2026-09-15 UTC. Narrative generator: deterministic-evidence-v1. Not yet human verified.
Executive summary
The Observatory captured 371 posts on 2026-09-16, 110% above the preceding 7-day daily average. The most frequent coded topics were other (138), rule of law (70), Kosovo (41), student movement (36).
The clearest material day-on-day signals were: Đorđe Vukadinović (actor) rose 3050%: 9 posts versus a 0.3 daily baseline. rule of law (topic) rose 1095%: 70 posts versus a 5.9 daily baseline. Kosovo (topic) rose 1096%: 41 posts versus a 3.4 daily baseline.
The highest raw engagement among observed posts came from FDU u blokadi (5088), ETF Blokada (3742), Vladimir Štimac (2817). Raw engagement is not compared directly across platforms.
What to watch
- Watch whether the upward movement in Đorđe Vukadinović persists for a second day.
- Watch whether the upward movement in rule of law persists for a second day.
- Watch whether the upward movement in Kosovo persists for a second day.
Campaign dynamics
- Observed posting volume was 110% above the preceding 7-day daily average.
- The busiest six-hour period was 12:00–18:00 local time with 163 observed posts.
- The most active monitored actors were N1 Beograd (135), Vladimir Štimac (50), Savo Manojlović (20).
| Actor | Posts | 7-day avg | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| N1 Beograd | 135 | 46.0 | +194% |
| Vladimir Štimac | 50 | 25.0 | +100% |
| Savo Manojlović | 20 | 10.7 | +87% |
| MFNS blokada | 17 | 5.9 | +190% |
| Serbian Progressive Party | 13 | 5.1 | +153% |
| Kreni-Promeni | 9 | 8.0 | +12% |
| Srđan Milivojević | 9 | 1.9 | +385% |
| Đorđe Vukadinović | 9 | 0.3 | +3050% |
Network and narrative propagation
- The reporting-day network contains 31 monitored accounts, 155 observed mention/hashtag/link objects and 184 weighted relationships.
- The most widely shared observed objects were @avucic (3 accounts), @zaklina_prva (3 accounts), @zdravkoponos (3 accounts).
- The broadest active narrative episodes were rule of law (13 accounts), student movement (30 accounts), Kosovo (13 accounts).
| Narrative | Accounts | Posts | New adoptions |
|---|---|---|---|
| rule of law Earliest observed: N1 Beograd | 13 | 111 | 5 |
| student movement Earliest observed: Zeleno-levi front | 30 | 250 | 3 |
| Kosovo Earliest observed: Kreni-Promeni | 13 | 65 | 3 |
| policy proposal Earliest observed: Dragan Milić | 11 | 29 | 3 |
| family/demography Earliest observed: Biljana Đorđević | 9 | 20 | 3 |
| media/information environment Earliest observed: Dragan Milić | 7 | 16 | 3 |
| economy Earliest observed: Narodni pokret Srbije | 7 | 15 | 2 |
| historical memory Earliest observed: Vladimir Štimac | 7 | 12 | 2 |
Observed co-occurrence and chronological succession are not proof of coordination, origin, transmission or causation.
Strongest observed network relationships
| Source actor | Observed object | Relationship | Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| Serbian Progressive Party | @milos_vucevic | mention | 8 |
| Vladimir Štimac | @avucic | mention | 6 |
| Savo Manojlović | @kpromeni | mention | 5 |
| Vladimir Štimac | @zaklina_prva | mention | 5 |
| N1 Beograd | @forbessrbija | mention | 4 |
| Kreni-Promeni | @savomanojlovic | mention | 3 |
| Srbija Centar SRCE | @zdravkoponos | mention | 3 |
| ETF Blokada | @dmilenkovic | mention | 3 |
| MFUBlokadi | @etfblokada | mention | 3 |
| Vladimir Štimac | @good_neighbor | mention | 3 |
Material changes
| Dimension | Signal | Today | 7-day daily avg | Change | z-like | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| actor | Đorđe Vukadinović ↑ up | 9 | 0.3 | +3050% | +17.86 | #1369#1371#1373#1375 |
| topic | rule of law ↑ up | 70 | 5.9 | +1095% | +8.64 | #1267#1280#1295#1297 |
| topic | Kosovo ↑ up | 41 | 3.4 | +1096% | +9.51 | #1254#1255#1295#1303 |
| topic | national identity ↑ up | 6 | 0.7 | +740% | +4.22 | #1328#1352#1392#1498 |
| actor | Miloš Parandilović ↑ up | 3 | 0.3 | +950% | +3.59 | #1288#1494#1495 |
| party | NLS ↑ up | 3 | 0.3 | +950% | +3.59 | #1288#1494#1495 |
| actor | Boško Obradović ↑ up | 3 | 0.4 | +600% | +4.81 | #1294#1405#1554 |
| party | Dveri ↑ up | 3 | 0.4 | +600% | +4.81 | #1294#1405#1554 |
Evidence from the reporting day
| Time | Actor | Platform | Observed post | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21:55 | Savo Manojlović | x | RT @velimirperovic: Večeras 30 godina postojanja slavi redakcija koja se prvu noć nakon izbora 2012. godine prodala Vučiću i koja je postal… | Original ↗ |
| 21:53 | Savo Manojlović | x | RT @nemanja_tasic: https://t.co/z7shEJkRdh | Original ↗ |
| 21:49 | Savo Manojlović | x | @BesposleniA @Nenad55555 Pa izjavili više puta. Evo za Jovu Bakića znam da je izjavio. U studenatkom programu jasno stoji. Bukvalno kao sada da idem i napadam ih oko Rio Tinta. Možda se nije svako na listi pojediačbo izjašnjavao, ali određeni istaknuti pojedinci jesu. I stav liste je jasan. | Original ↗ |
| 21:35 | Biljana Đorđević | x | @banevolibananee To je zato što si mađioničar 😂 | Original ↗ |
| 21:33 | Biljana Đorđević | x | Ako podelim ovo, da li će me Relja Ognjenović opet tužiti? 🤭 https://t.co/4qbckvVGuW | Original ↗ |
| 21:20 | Savo Manojlović | x | RT @ivkovic_al: RTS prilog o predizbornim aktivnostima za sredu, 15. septembar: Savez vojvođanskih Mađara predao listu Vučević u obilasku… | Original ↗ |
| 21:19 | N1 Beograd | x | Leto 2026: Rekordan broj smrtnih slučajeva usled vrućina u Nemačkoj https://t.co/PrrJ8mgk2X | Original ↗ |
| 21:01 | Savo Manojlović | x | RT @MirkoDautovic: Ja bih molio za bedž "Kako ide pakovanje?" na sledećem okupljanju. | Original ↗ |
| 20:59 | N1 Beograd | x | Rumunska partija podržala Studentsku listu: Celokupna javnost da prepozna važnost ovog trenutka https://t.co/nQqdLtKEFD | Original ↗ |
| 20:58 | Pavle Grbović | x | @Dalibororevi Da ne ulazim u prvi deo, ali ovo u vezi sa predsednickim izborima je potpuno netačno. | Original ↗ |
| 20:57 | Biljana Đorđević | x | RT @HrnjazMilos: Još ovo i neću više: jedna od velikih prepreka regionalnom "pomirenju" je nespremnost pobednika da priznavanjem zločina "u… | Original ↗ |
| 20:52 | FTN SE BUDI | x | RT @sviublokade_fdu: < 3 https://t.co/8Kfn9Q7VHQ | Original ↗ |
| 20:48 | N1 Beograd | x | Ukrajina kaže da je spremna za sporazum s Rusijom o nenapadanju energetskih objekata https://t.co/HJ5RsrCTiE | Original ↗ |
| 20:46 | MFNS blokada | x | RT @sviublokade_fdu: < 3 https://t.co/8Kfn9Q7VHQ | Original ↗ |
| 20:45 | Vladimir Štimac | x | @beli_boobrezi2 Treba im većih kofera | Original ↗ |
| 20:44 | Vladimir Štimac | x | @paratzelzius Drugari🤣 | Original ↗ |
| 20:35 | Vladimir Štimac | x | Aooooo jbt, dva drugara stara se posvađaše! Da li je Gagan radio za Krasnićija? https://t.co/vjJhshDWMZ | Original ↗ |
| 20:32 | Pavle Grbović | x | @SredojeP Ali to nije mišljenje već glupost, ali sam saglasan da imaš pravo na to. | Original ↗ |
| 20:32 | Pavle Grbović | x | @CIPservis Pa evo pogledaj prethodnih 5 godina pa pročitaj opet ovo što si napisao | Original ↗ |
| 20:32 | N1 Beograd | x | Građani traže pravdu za ubijenu novinarku - marš u glavnom gradu Malte https://t.co/XYEq6OgVEV | Original ↗ |
| 20:27 | FDU u blokadi | x | RT @studentuselu: За викенд смо вам поред потписивања нашег плана за будућност Србије, спремили још 35 акција широм Србије! | Original ↗ |
| 20:26 | FDU u blokadi | x | @blokadaPMFkg ♥️♥️♥️ | Original ↗ |
| 20:19 | Pavle Grbović | x | Svako ko želi Srbiju po ruskoj meri, ne želi dobro Srbiji. Neki to žele iz uverenja, tačnije neznanja i neinformisanlsti. Oni koji to čine iz interesa su pametniji za sebe, ali opasniji po društvo. Dobro je samo to što se lako i brzo otkriju. | Original ↗ |
| 20:15 | Vladimir Štimac | x | @Bolesni_ste Naravno, volim moje Valjevce! | Original ↗ |
| 20:08 | N1 Beograd | x | Jakov Milatović: Odluke međunarodnih sudova moraju da se poštuju u potpunosti i bez izuzetka https://t.co/KZgTD6faTV | Original ↗ |
| 20:07 | N1 Beograd | x | RIK odbacio prigovore, među njima i onaj na listu SNS-a jer nosi naziv Vučića koji i dalje obavlja javnu funkciju https://t.co/t6tRmCvuq3 | Original ↗ |
| 20:05 | Vladimir Štimac | x | Nikad jača kampanja, nikad jača snaga! Studenti pobeđuju! https://t.co/XxSGKozXE0 | Original ↗ |
| 20:04 | Srđan Milivojević | x | @SotirMiliv74977 Gledam da ne ugazim u tebe...pozdravio te Grenel.... https://t.co/NbjQ7DgAFD | Original ↗ |
| 20:04 | FDU u blokadi | x | @Djura_vragolije Videćemo 😉 | Original ↗ |
| 19:59 | Savo Manojlović | x | RT @KPromeni: "Ričard Grenel je istinski prijatelj Srbije", Aleksandar Vučić. https://t.co/44muNjJLqh | Original ↗ |
| 19:58 | N1 Beograd | x | Jakšić: Bojim se posledica presude po Srbe - umesto katarze, albansku zajednicu će gurnuti u apsolutni nacionalizam https://t.co/rlqP3GIJ7m | Original ↗ |
| 19:56 | Kreni-Promeni | x | "Ričard Grenel je istinski prijatelj Srbije", Aleksandar Vučić. https://t.co/44muNjJLqh | Original ↗ |
| 19:54 | N1 Beograd | x | Trampova administracija ukinula 177 milijardi dolara pomoći građanima https://t.co/jcDMJp2fCp | Original ↗ |
| 19:54 | Kreni-Promeni | x | "Ričard Grenel je istinski prijatelj Srbije." -Aleksandar Vučić. https://t.co/agOdhB2r0M | Original ↗ |
| 19:52 | Savo Manojlović | x | RT @KPromeni: Lideri OVK Hašim Tači i Jakup Krasnići prvostepeno su u Hagu osuđeni na po 25 godina zatvora, Kadri Veselji na 18, a Redžep S… | Original ↗ |
| 19:51 | Savo Manojlović | x | @MilosMiilutinac https://t.co/NUV8aAVuZM | Original ↗ |
| 19:45 | Srbija Centar SRCE | x | RT @OnlineDanas: Cvejić (SRCE): REM ne reaguje na funkcionersku predizbornu kampanju vlasti https://t.co/2fiuHS5g6v | Original ↗ |
| 19:45 | Savo Manojlović | x | RT @pavelzivkovic: Danas prvi put držim u rukama prvi broj italijanskog časopisa - R/EST: Racconti, reportage e immagini dal Sud-Est Europa… | Original ↗ |
| 19:44 | N1 Beograd | x | Cvejić (SRCE): REM ne reaguje na funkcionersku predizbornu kampanju vlasti https://t.co/4cfrdezXLd | Original ↗ |
| 19:43 | FDU u blokadi | x | @vanjagator Plenumski spoljni saradnik, Dejmon Albarn, nažalost, ima koncert u San Dijegu 25. oktobra. Ako ništa drugo, eto njega o Božiću da lomi česnicu | Original ↗ |
| 19:34 | Savo Manojlović | x | @Nenad55555 @BesposleniA Studentska lista se više puta izjasnila da se zalaže za ustavno određenje statusa Kosova i Metohije. Što se mene tiče izjasnio sam se sigurno preko 100 puta. Evo npr. i ovde👇 https://t.co/tvH7fAoXd4 | Original ↗ |
| 19:34 | N1 Beograd | x | Studenti u blokadi: U naš magacin došli policijski službenici - jeftini pokušaji zastrašivanja nas neće okrznuti https://t.co/vEjaiApsfq | Original ↗ |
| 19:34 | Vladimir Štimac | x | @good_neighbor @haarppp Usro se šipi | Original ↗ |
| 19:34 | Vladimir Štimac | x | Vidimo se sutra u Valjevu!!! https://t.co/lmJmPONUp5 | Original ↗ |
| 19:34 | N1 Beograd | x | Hubač i Stanić sa studentima, Lečić i Vukićević na listi SNS: Kako vide budućnost kulture u Srbiji https://t.co/3Okpwd9I4c | Original ↗ |
| 19:27 | Bora | x | haahhahaahahhahahaha koliko je popizdeo zbog biciklista 😆😆😆😆😆 https://t.co/gu842H7gdI | Original ↗ |
| 19:26 | Student u svakom selu | x | За викенд смо вам поред потписивања нашег плана за будућност Србије, спремили још 35 акција широм Србије! | Original ↗ |
| 19:25 | FDU u blokadi | x | < 3 https://t.co/8Kfn9Q7VHQ | Original ↗ |
| 19:24 | Serbian Progressive Party | x | RT @milos_vucevic: “Дане Српске у Србији” обележавамо сваке године, и посебна ми је част што представљам председника Србије Александра Вучи… | Original ↗ |
| 19:22 | Narodni pokret Srbije | x | Tačiju i liderima OVK konačno potvrđena odgovornost, ali pravda za žrtve i njihove porodice tu ne sme da stane https://t.co/Ilq36Jg7gp | Original ↗ |